Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minutes podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves that bettors need to know about each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I’ll also be joining Big Bets at 2:45 p.m. ET this afternoon to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash…
8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
The Dolphins are one of only two undefeated teams left in the NFL along with the Philadelphia Eagles. Miami is coming off a big 21-19 win over the divisional rival Bills, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals just earned their first win of the season, crushing the Jets 27-12 and easily covering as 6.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Bengals listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the Dolphins. However, despite 64% of bets taking the points with Miami, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Bengals -3 to -3.5. It even reached -4 earlier this week before some Miami buyback dropped it back down to 3.5 where it rests now.
Reading between the lines, it looks as though respected money is laying the points with the Bengals, who are only receiving 36% of bets but are taking in all liability and movement. Cincinnati has value as an unpopular contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. The Bengals are also in a “fade the trendy dog spot,” with the public favoring Miami but respected wagers leaning Cincinnati. The Bengals also have buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (1-2) playing a sell-high “good” ATS team (3-0).
Sharps also seem to be leaning under. Despite 65% of bets taking the over, this line has fallen from 48.5 to 48, with some shops hanging 47.5 and even reaching 47 briefly throughout the week. Unders are 30-18 (62%) this season. Primetime unders are 7-3 this season and 93-64 (59%) since 2019. The Bengals are 3-0 to the under and the Dolphins are 2-1 to the under. The forecast calls for high 50s, clear skies and 7 MPH winds.
Keep an eye out for the injury report and inactives. Miami has several key players listed as questionable, including QB Tua Tagovailoa and CB Xavien Howard.
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