We’ve spent the week following Hurricane Ian and the betting impacts for college football Saturday. On Monday morning, a bevy of bets hit the board on the under for games that were thought to be impacted by the storm. We saw moves ranging from 7-14 points on games in Virginia and the Carolinas as the tropical system was forecasted to make a second landfall near Charleston, South Carolina and then move up into Appalachia.
As it turned out, the storm took a northerly turn and made impact near Georgetown, South Carolina, about halfway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston. That also meant a change to the track of the storm once it moved fully onto the mainland.
The only big game change is that SMU vs. UCF has been moved to Wednesday, as Orlando had severe flooding from the storm. Both teams were on a bye next week, so they agreed to the midweek matchup.
The lives of several of these betting lines have been rather interesting. As we do one final Friday night update, here’s where things stand (odds from DraftKings):
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (-9.5, 65): This game was pushed back three hours from 4 p.m. ET to 7 p.m. ET in case of bad weather, but the storm has since moved out of Conway and up into North Carolina. At DraftKings, this total opened 67.5 and moved up to 68.5 before getting bet all the way down to 57.5. With a clearer forecast and the original projection for lots of points, this total went all the way to 65.5 again before settling in at 65.
NC State at Clemson (-6.5, 45): This total opened 46 at DraftKings, so we’re just about back to where we started. This one got as low as 39.5 on Wednesday, but has steadily been bet back up to just about where it originally opened.
Virginia at Duke (-2.5, 53.5): This total had a similar pattern, opening at 56.5 and getting bet all the way down to 48.5. This one did actually bounce around, going up and down on Wednesday before bettors across the market came back in on the total. It’s still not fully back to where it opened early in the week, but did seesaw back up closer to the starting point.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-9, 56): Knowing what we’ve seen from UNC’s defense, it was hard to fathom a total of 50, even if wind and rain was in the forecast. However, with a much better outlook in Chapel Hill, this one is almost all the way back to its DraftKings opener of 57.
Liberty (-3.5, 43.5) at Old Dominion: With some questions about Liberty QB Kaidon Salter, this one has not gotten to where it opened. In fact, this is one of the lowest totals on the board at 43.5. This game opened 48 and got as low as 41. We’ve seen modest buyback on the over, but the under may simply have been the handicap in this game all along.
Texas State at James Madison (-21.5, 51.5): This total opened 55 and got down to as low as 51. This game, however, is still affected by the remnants of Ian, with gusts as high as 40 mph and a whole bunch of rain in the forecast for Saturday, which is why we haven’t seen over money come back in. There’s a good chance that this line goes even lower on Saturday.
There are some new games that have been impacted by the forecast with the storm tracking north through Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Georgia Tech at Pitt (-22, 48): This total is down to about 48 after opening 50. It did get as low as 47.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more under money hit the board on Saturday.
Michigan State at Maryland (-7.5, 58): Rain and wind are expected to be factors in College Park on Saturday, with gusts as high as 40 mph during the afternoon and a good bit of rain. This total could be one to plummet on Saturday as well.
Keep an eye on FCS games on the eastern seaboard as well, as those games are likely to see under money when they get posted on Saturday morning.
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